The Next Billion Users

Message 36:
Date: 1.6.96
From: nicholas@media.mit.edu
To: oem@wired.co.uk

The question I'm asked most often is, "Will the information rich get richer while the information poor get poorer ?" I answer, "No." But that may be too quick and too simple.

Assuming that the Net will have a billion users by the turn of the century also assumes that the majority of them will be in developed nations. More than half of the roughly 10 million host machines that exist today are in the United States. Many of the rest are in G7 nations. In fact, the 50 least-developed countries of the world - those with less than US$500 per capita GDP - currently sport 23 host machines. The information rich are indeed rich and the information poor are indeed poor.

But this will change. Consider a country like Malaysia, where the people value education, and the government, albeit slightly despotic, grandly promotes development. There are currently 20,000 Internet users in Kuala Lumpur, a number that is growing by 20% each month. At this rate, all of Malaysia (some 19.1 million people) will be online by 2000. So far, we haven't been counting these people in our billion users calculation. And Malaysia is not the only country growing at this rate.

Gung-hoism

Consider the most gung-ho person in your neighbourhood, the one who enthusiastically embraces rubbish collection, baby-sitting and a host of other local civic projects. The neighbour who comes to mind is probably the newest arrival. Said another way, the most devout among us are frequently those who have most recently converted. We're all familiar with new email users who go berserk and swamp us with interminably long and chatty messages. This can happen on a global scale and is something to ponder when you realise that India and China represent more than 2 billion people. But the difference between using computers for email and, for example, primary education is that the former may be an infatuation while the latter can provide an everlasting square meal of digital nutrition.

In general I'm very optimistic, especially about the developing world rapidly "becom- ing digital". Almost half of the populations of developing nations are under the age of 20, in contrast to less than a third in developed countries. Typically, this youth corps is considered a liability. But given the existing base of people, a large youth population is an asset as nations move forward, particularly in countries where older members of society are less literate.

We all know that kids take to computers as they do to language, and that given the chance, they will jump into the digital world with passionate abandon. When PCs were only "personal computers", educational opportunities - especially in the developing world - were limited by the amount of software "second guessed" to be appropriate. With the Internet, this changes dramatically. It's no longer necessary to plot every step in advance. Kids can teach other kids around the world. Reasons for being able to read and write will become obvious.

Two fixable problems

You're probably saying, Sure, we love the idea of developing countries jumping into the digital age, but what about the problems of communications and cost ? In developing countries the telephone systems are not just dilapidated, scarce and poorly run, they're also outrageously expensive monopolies that are almost always state-owned. It is difficult to tell if a lousy system is a result of shabby infrastructure, an inefficient or corrupt civil service, or both.

For these reasons, it would be great to pull away from such earthly flaws and use a grid of low-orbiting satellites - like Iridium or Teledesic - to link the schools of the developing world. At least it is possible - without digging up Africa or managing 100 different phone companies.

Access to low-cost computers seems more difficult. As we press machines into harder duty and make them more sophisticated, we sometimes forget that, for some people, simple equipment is much better than none at all. A 386 laptop - fine for Net connections, word processing and graphics - can be built today for under $250. That's important. And backing away from hardware expectations is not the only issue; trimming our operating systems is even more vital. Windows 95 makes no sense in most of Africa. A svelte, stripped-down version is needed so that memory demand, among other things, is modest. When that happens, the next billion users may not be composed of our digitally homeless middle-class relatives; rather, a totally new group of young, eager minds from "elsewhere" may emerge.

A call for a school corps

We now need at least 500,000 young men and women from developed nations who are willing to spend a year in the developing world as part of a school corps, like the Peace Corps. These young people would be a resource for more than 100 children each (a conservative figure) within the 48 countries considered by Unesco as the "least developed." Universities would be wise to support such an initiative by offering academic credit for a new kind of year abroad. Most students would gain far more from teaching 6-year-olds in Africa than in the classroom.

Running such an effort would cost about as much as a few F-15s. The problem is not money, but how to do it. Under whose aegis ? Unesco is too politicised, and the World Bank would want its money back. It may be time to create a new United Nations for cyberspace, an organisation with a five-year half-life to make the digital world immediately available to everyone. It cannot be done country by country - governments move so slowly, and most are run by the digitally homeless, anyway.

Something very new is needed. If you have a good idea, speak up. Use the email address above. Seriously.